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Analysis of price dynamics in agricultural cash prices using fractal theory and implications for risk management with futures hedging.

机译:使用分形理论分析农业现金价格的价格动态及其对期货套期保值风险管理的影响。

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摘要

A fractal structure is a set of systematic rules that governs movements of an object or phenomenon through time and space. It is self-similar in that smaller pieces of an object are related to the whole, and it has fractional dimension. Natural fractals are called random fractals and they are governed by the combinations of generating rules randomly chosen at different scales. Many economic time series can be treated as random fractals. They may have fractal structures over a range of time scales, and the formation is governed by complex nonlinear dynamic processes. If a time series has fractal structure, the series will manifest fractional Brownian motion and/or the stable distribution.; This study aims to detect fractal structures in the time series of major agricultural commodity cash prices in the U.S. The RJS analyses and stable distribution models are used to analyze fractional Brownian motion and the stable distribution and to characterize non-normal leptokurtosis, long-term memory, self-similarity, and fractional dimension of the series. A reason for the existence of fractals in the price series is discussed, using the fractal market hypothesis and a demand-supply system.; The empirical results indicate evidence of long-term memory for the series; the series do not follow a randomwalk, and the Gaussian assumption is not appropriate. The series have long-term persistent memory with abrupt large changes, fractional dimension, and self-similarity. These properties indicate that the series can be described accurately by fractals.; The empirical results have important implications in market analyses. First, in the presence of fractals, the efficient market hypothesis is no longer appropriate, and thus alternatives such as the fractal market hypothesis are needed. Second, with information on other frequencies in a time series we can predict the behavior of a frequency of the series, using self-similarity. Third, if one considers long-term memory, better forecasting power will be gained; one can increase the credibility of forecasting by considering both short-term and long-term dependence simultaneously. Fourth, it is revealed that the series follow the black noise process, comprising long-term persistent memory with abrupt large changes over markets' various trading horizons. This implies that risk management of market participants can be improved using information on the black noise process. Fifth, the value of the information is illustrated using a hedging demand model. Since the stable distribution describes extreme events effectively, the distributional information provides benefits to hedgers. Sixth, the implications of undefined or infinite mean and variance in economic analyses are discussed in the context of fractal economic time series.
机译:分形结构是一组系统规则,用于控制对象或现象在时间和空间上的移动。它是自相似的,因为对象的较小部分与整体有关,并且具有分数维。自然分形称为随机分形,它们由在不同比例下随机选择的生成规则的组合所控制。许多经济时间序列可以视为随机分形。它们可能在一定的时间范围内具有分形结构,并且地层由复杂的非线性动力学过程控制。如果时间序列具有分形结构,则该序列将表现出分数布朗运动和/或稳定分布。这项研究旨在检测美国主要农产品现金价格的时间序列中的分形结构。使用RJS分析和稳定分布模型分析分数布朗运动和稳定分布,并表征非正态瘦峰,长期记忆,系列的自相似性和分数维。使用分形市场假设和需求-供给系统,讨论了在价格序列中存在分形的原因。实验结果表明该系列具有长期记忆的证据。该序列不遵循随机游动,并且高斯假设不合适。该系列具有长期的永久性记忆,具有突然的大变化,分数维和自相似性。这些性质表明该系列可以用分形来准确描述。实证结果对市场分析具有重要意义。首先,在存在分形的情况下,有效的市场假设不再适用,因此需要诸如分形市场假设之类的替代方法。其次,利用时间序列中其他频率的信息,我们可以使用自相似性预测该频率序列的行为。第三,如果考虑长期记忆,将获得更好的预测能力。通过同时考虑短期和长期依赖性,可以提高预测的可信度。第四,揭示了该系列遵循黑噪声过程,包括长期持续的记忆以及市场各个交易时段的突然大变化。这意味着可以使用有关黑噪声过程的信息来改善市场参与者的风险管理。第五,使用对冲需求模型来说明信息的价值。由于稳定的分布有效地描述了极端事件,因此分布信息为套期保值者提供了好处。第六,在分形经济时间序列的背景下讨论了经济分析中不确定的或无限的均值和方差的含义。

著录项

  • 作者

    Jin, Hyun Joung.;

  • 作者单位

    The Pennsylvania State University.;

  • 授予单位 The Pennsylvania State University.;
  • 学科 Economics Agricultural.; Economics Finance.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2001
  • 页码 235 p.
  • 总页数 235
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 农业经济;财政、金融;
  • 关键词

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