Caspian games: A dynamic bargaining game.

摘要

This Dissertation was written under the direction of Professor P.Terrence Hopmann. In this work, the author seeks to identify the independent variables affecting the outcome of three key decisions required of the international consortiums constructing Caspian oil export pipelines. The first of involves whether or not the enterprises developing the pipelines to export Kazakh oil, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (“CPC”), and Azeri oil, the Azerbaijan International Operating Consortium (“CPC”), cooperate by utilizing the same route or utilize separate energy export corridors. Second, I analyzed how the actual Main Export Pipeline route (“MEP”) for Azeri oil was selected by the AIOC. Finally, I tried to understand the factors driving the residual equity positions in each consortium. I was particularly interested in the equity position of Russian state and commercial interests in each consortium.; I approached the puzzle as a multilevel bargaining problem. Hence, the preferences of each relevant actor (state and corporate levels) were assessed. The covering theory utilized was rational choice. An application of game theoretic modeling, particularly Bayesian analysis (used as a metaphor), accounted for the learning process resulting from the strategic interaction between actors. I sought to understand greater the refinement of each actor's perception of counterpart preferences. Additionally, the Gordon Constant Growth Model (“CGM”) and the Sharp's Capital Asset Pricing Model (“CAPM”) were utilized to relate multinational actors preferences, achieving a cost of capital based hurdle rate, to political risk.; My end findings demonstrate this interrelationship and provide a clear argument for great power states to persuade newly developing Caspian states to adopt a more transparent, and credible approach to corporate governance. This revised state strategy will reduce multinationals' perception of political risk, lower firms' cost of capital (hurdle rate), and increase the funding of major energy development projects, which will stimulate economic and political development.