Signaling influence: Presidential statements and their power over policy.

摘要

Presidential signals are a potential source of influence over public policy. Signals allow presidents to communicate efficiently their policy preferences to members of Congress and the bureaucracy. Legislators and bureaucrats need the president and his authority to achieve their own goals. Moreover, both Congress and the bureaucracy should respond to signals because presidents are legitimate leaders of the policy process, and because presidents can reward legislators and bureaucrats with support if they respond to presidential signals. Given sufficient attention and leadership, presidents may be able to persuade legislators and bureaucrats to accept presidential policy preferences. Because policy affects politics, I also analyze the president's signaling influence over three policy areas: civil rights, clean air, and farm policy. I test my hypotheses using time series methodology and qualitative inferences. My conclusions support some signaling effects, primarily over civil rights policy in the bureaucracy.