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The pricing strategy of a Bayesian learning monopolistic insurer.

机译:贝叶斯学习型垄断保险公司的定价策略。

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摘要

Much of the standard literature on adverse selection insurance models assumes that the only unknown parameter is the accident probability and that all consumers have the same level of risk aversion. This paper relaxes these two assumptions by allowing consumers to have different levels of risk aversion, which the insurer has no prior knowledge of these levels of risk aversion when meeting consumers for the first time. Using Bayesian learning a monopolistic insurer tries to learn a consumer's level of risk aversion. This paper shows that an insurer who learns in the two-type consumer model offers either separating contracts to the two different types of consumer or does not insure one of the types of consumer. This result is identical to the result in Stiglitz (1977) where he assumes that the monopolistic insurer has prior knowledge of a consumer's level of risk aversion. However, the insurer who learns offers different contracts when compared to the insurer who knows a consumer's level of risk aversion. By offering different contracts than the insurer who knows a consumer's level of risk aversion, the insurer who learns earns less expected profit than the insurer who knows a consumer's level of risk aversion. Monte Carlo simulation results show that the expected percentage loss in profit is significantly larger than the corresponding expected percentage changes in prices and coverage of the insurance contracts as a result of the insurer learning the levels of risk aversion of the two different types of consumer.
机译:有关逆向选择保险模型的许多标准文献都假设唯一未知的参数是事故概率,并且所有消费者的风险规避水平都相同。本文通过允许消费者具有不同级别的风险规避来放宽这两个假设,而保险公司在首次与消费者见面时就没有这些风险规避水平的先验知识。通过贝叶斯学习,垄断性保险公司试图了解消费者的风险规避水平。本文表明,在两种类型的消费者模型中学习的保险公司要么将合同分离给两种不同类型的消费者,要么不为一种类型的消费者提供保险。该结果与Stiglitz(1977)中的结果相同,他假设垄断保险公司对消费者的风险规避水平有先验知识。但是,与了解消费者风险规避程度的保险公司相比,学习的保险公司提供的合同不同。通过提供与了解消费者风险规避水平的保险人不同的合同,学习保险人的收益比知道消费者风险规避水平的保险人的预期利润要少。蒙特卡洛模拟结果表明,由于保险公司了解了两种不同类型消费者的风险规避水平,因此预期的利润损失百分比明显大于相应的价格预期和保险合同的预期百分比变化。

著录项

  • 作者

    Barber, Kevin D.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.;

  • 授予单位 University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.;
  • 学科 Economics Theory.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2003
  • 页码 150 p.
  • 总页数 150
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 经济学;
  • 关键词

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