Essays on growth, productivity and the oil industry in Indonesia.

摘要

This study examines the sources of growth in Indonesia. To do this, a standard growth model is developed. First, the model is decomposed into two sectors, oil and non-oil, which are then estimated by applying OLS and 2SLS procedures. This decomposition is intended to capture the externality impact of the oil sector on the economy. Second, the model is extended to incorporate how foreign trade affects productivity and output growth in Indonesia. The second model is estimated by using OLS, OLS with Fixed Effects, 2SLS, and 2SLS with Fixed Effects procedures. To overcome the weakness of our econometric estimation results, the study finally offers a different method to account for Indonesia's Total Factor Productivity. This last method is to directly measure labour share.; The data sets used in this study are from the World Bank, the Central Board of Statistics of Indonesia, the Bank of Indonesia, Pertamina, and other sources.; The results show that both growth in factor inputs and in productivity contributed to output growth in Indonesia. This study shows that foreign trade affects productivity in the short-run. However, oil and non-oil exports alone cannot secure long-run growth in Indonesia. The contribution of the oil sector is smaller than the non-oil sector. It is argued that the positive effect of the oil sector might have been reduced as a result of monopoly in the oil industry.; The results also show that the relative contribution of productivity growth to output growth is higher than the contribution of factor inputs. The contribution of productivity growth is around 3.6 per cent, while factor inputs are always less than 1 per cent regardless of the method and data used.