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Essays in behavioral economics: Applying prospect theory to auctions.

机译:行为经济学论文:将前景理论应用于拍卖。

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摘要

I explore the implications of reference-dependent preferences in sealed-bid auctions. In the first part, I develop a Prospect theory based model to explain bidding in first-price auctions. I show that bidding in induced-value first-price sealed-bid auctions can be rationalized as a combination of reactions to underlying ambiguity and anticipated loss aversion. Using data from experimental auctions, I provide evidence that in induced-value auctions with human bidders, this approach works well. In auctions with prior experience and/or against risk-neutral Nash rivals where ambiguity effects could be altogether irrelevant, anticipated loss aversion by itself can explain aggressive bidding. This is a novel result in the literature. Using data from experiments, I find that ambiguity effects become negligible in auctions with experienced human bidders against (i) experienced human rivals and (ii) Nash computer rivals, when loss aversion is taken in consideration. The estimates for loss aversion are similar in auctions with human bidders (with or without experience).Next, I extend my approach of anticipated loss aversion to address bidding outcomes in first- and second-price sealed-bid auctions. As shown in first part, the model predicts overbidding in first-price induced-value auctions consistent with evidence from most laboratory experiments. However, substantially different bidding behavior could result in commodity auctions where money and auction item are consumed along different dimensions of the consumption space. Differences also result in second-price auctions. The study thereby indicates that transferring qualitative behavioral findings from induced-value laboratory experiments to the field may be problematic if subjects are loss averse and anticipate such losses at the time of bidding.Finally, I explore the effect of resale or procurement opportunities, to which bidders have heterogeneous market access, on bidding in first- price sealed-bid auctions. My models suggest that in auctions with resale, loss aversion causes underbidding with respect to the risk-neutral-Nash prediction. Bidders with greatest level of market access are least affected by loss aversion and therefore bid closer to the risk-neutral-Nash than bidders with smaller market access. In auctions with procurement, the effect of loss aversion is such that it causes overbidding (underbidding) for bidders with respect to the risk-neutral-Nash. Bidders with greatest level of market access are again least affected by loss aversion and therefore bid much conservatively and closer to the risk-neutral-Nash than bidders with very low market access. If market access is interpreted as a proxy for experience, the predictions of my model are qualitatively similar to the findings in List (2003, 2004). Since these indirect effects are obtained without altering reference-dependent preferences, it raises the possibility that the effects obtained in List (2003, 2004) in field settings may not arise entirely due to the direct effect of experience on reference-dependent preferences. This calls for a more careful reexamination of the underlying issues.
机译:我探索了在密封竞标拍卖中依赖参考的偏好的含义。在第一部分中,我开发了一个基于前景理论的模型来解释一价拍卖中的出价。我表明,可以将对诱导价值的第一价格密封竞标的出价合理化,作为对潜在歧义和预期损失回避的反应的组合。通过使用实验性拍卖的数据,我提供了证据,证明了在采用人工竞价的诱导价值拍卖中,这种方法行之有效。在具有先验经验和/或与风险中立的纳什竞争对手进行拍卖的情况下,模棱两可的影响可能完全不相关,预期的损失回避本身可以解释积极的竞标。这是文献中的一个新颖的结果。使用实验数据,我发现在考虑有损失回避的情况下,有经验的竞标者对(i)有经验的竞标者和(ii)Nash电脑竞标者的模糊性影响可以忽略不计。在有人工竞标者(有或没有经验)的拍卖中,对损失厌恶的估计是相似的。接下来,我扩展了预期的损失厌恶的方法,以解决一价和二价密封竞标拍卖的投标结果。如第一部分所示,该模型预测与大多数实验室实验的证据一致的第一价格诱导价值拍卖的竞价。但是,实质上不同的投标行为可能会导致商品拍卖,其中沿消费空间的不同维度消耗金钱和拍卖物品。差异也导致第二价格拍卖。因此,该研究表明,如果受试者不愿承受损失并在竞标时预计此类损失,那么将定性行为研究结果从诱导值实验室实验转移到现场可能会遇到问题。最后,我探讨了转售或采购机会的影响,竞标者在第一价格密封竞标拍卖中的竞标具有不同的市场准入。我的模型表明,在进行转售的拍卖中,对于风险中性纳什预测,厌恶损失会导致竞价偏低。具有最大市场准入水平的竞标者受损失规避的影响最小,因此,与具有较小市场准入条件的竞标者相比,竞标更接近风险中性纳什。在有采购的拍卖中,规避损失的影响使得投标人相对于风险中性纳什而言出价过高(出价过低)。具有最高市场准入水平的竞标者再次受到损失规避的影响最小,因此,与具有极低市场准入条件的竞标者相比,竞标要保守得多,并且更接近于风险中性纳什。如果将市场准入解释为经验的代理,那么我的模型的预测在质量上就类似于List(2003,2004)的发现。由于这些间接效果是在不改变参考依赖偏好的情况下获得的,因此提高了以下可能性:由于经验对参考依赖偏好的直接影响,在List(2003,2004)中获得的效果可能不会完全出现。这就要求对潜在问题进行更仔细的重新审查。

著录项

  • 作者

    Ratan, Anmol.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Maryland, College Park.;

  • 授予单位 University of Maryland, College Park.;
  • 学科 Psychology Behavioral.Economics Theory.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2010
  • 页码 154 p.
  • 总页数 154
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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