A framework to evaluate growth potential of emerging technologies---a case of flexible electronics.

摘要

Invariably, emerging technologies are a source of radical innovations, and most of the times, they disrupt incumbent technology markets. In high-technology sectors, with intense competition and shortened product life cycles, failure to detect an emerging technology could be devastating to both incumbent technology pursuers and innovators. Firms typically use technology-forecasting methods such as Delphi method or Technology road-mapping to visualize growth.;In the case of emerging technologies, forecasting methods are not always reliable due to lack of historical data. Typically, both qualitative and quantitative methods are employed in technology forecasting, but, there are risks associated with these methods. Hence, there is a general consensus in technology forecasting community to apply multiple methods to visualize growth. Flexible electronics is an emerging field and innovations in this sector are being envisioned to have new markets with huge growth potential.;This study analyzes flexible electronics technology within a proposed framework to evaluate growth potential. The methodology would use early indicators of technology such as patents and publications to forecast growth. Instead of a single point forecast, scenarios of growth are generated to visualize growth scenarios. The methodology is first validated on select technologies from the past.;Based on the lessons learnt from the validation, the framework would be applied to emerging technology based innovations. Based on the study, it is forecasted in the short term (3-5 years), Flexible Displays technology would be an active area of interest for both patents and publications. Some of the emerging technology based innovations have not matured enough to indicate high-growth, even though, they promise potential.;The frame work presented here-in would not only aid in technology evaluation, but, also provide a better understanding of emerging technologies, especially flexible electronics applications. By studying technology indicators such as patents and publications, which are unbiased indicators of technology, would help in visualizing growth "Ex-Ante".