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Asymptotics for the arc length of a multivariate time series and its applications as a measure of risk.

机译:多元时间序列的弧长的渐近线及其作为风险度量的应用。

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摘要

The necessity of more trustworthy methods for measuring the risk (volatility) of financial assets has come to the surface with the global market downturn This dissertation aims to propose sample arc length of a time series, which provides a measure of the overall magnitude of the one-step-ahead changes over the observation time period, as a new approach for quantifying the risk. The Gaussian functional central limit theorem is proven under finite second moment conditions. Without loss of generality we consider equally spaced time series when first differences of the series follow a variety of popular stationary models including autoregressive moving average, generalized auto regressive conditional heteroscedastic, and stochastic volatility. As applications we use CUSUM statistic to identify changepoints in terms of volatility of Dow Jones Index returns from January, 2005 through December, 2009. We also compare asset series to determine if they have different volatility structures when arc length is used as the tool of quantification. The idea is that processes with larger sample arc lengths exhibit larger fluctuations, and hence suggest greater variability.
机译:随着全球市场的低迷,衡量金融资产的风险(波动性)的方法越来越值得信赖的必要性已经浮出水面。本论文旨在提出一个时间序列的样本弧长,以提供一个时间序列的整体量度。作为量化风险的一种新方法,可以在观察期内逐步改变。高斯泛函中心极限定理在有限的第二矩条件下得到证明。在不失一般性的前提下,当序列的第一个差异遵循各种流行的平稳模型(包括自回归移动平均,广义自回归条件异方差和随机波动)时,我们考虑等距时间序列。在应用程序中,我们使用CUSUM统计量来确定2005年1月至2009年12月道琼斯指数收益率的波动性变化点。我们还比较了资产系列,以确定在使用弧长作为量化工具时资产系列是否具有不同的波动性结构。 。想法是,具有较大样本弧长的过程会显示较大的波动,因此建议较大的可变性。

著录项

  • 作者

    Wickramarachchi, Tharanga.;

  • 作者单位

    Clemson University.;

  • 授予单位 Clemson University.;
  • 学科 Statistics.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2012
  • 页码 51 p.
  • 总页数 51
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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