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Current account sustainability and capital flows case of Turkey.

机译:土耳其的经常账户可持续性和资本流动案例。

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摘要

This thesis applies Granger Causality Tests to balance of payments accounts of Turkey between the first quarter of 1992 and the last quarter of 2009, in order to test effectiveness of current account sustainability indicators that are derived by two major theoretical conceptions about current account sustainability.;First theoretical conception is called "current account oriented views." That approach states that high and persistent current account deficits may be outcomes of some structural vulnerabilities of the domestic economy. Those vulnerabilities can arise from trade deficits, budget deficits, and saving-investment gap.;Second theoretical conception is called "capital account oriented view." According to that approach, high and persistent current account deficits are the main outcomes of speculative-led economic growth and current account deficits which are induced by high capital inflows.;Results show that the current account balance of Turkey is mainly driven by capital-financial account and portfolio investments subaccount, during postinternational financial liberalization era. Additionally, causal relationship between current and capital-financial account balances arises from causality from capital-financial account to goods and services subaccount of current account.;Finally, according to test results, financial account oriented indicators are found more effective than conventional indicators.
机译:本文将格兰杰因果关系检验应用于1992年第一季度至2009年最后一个季度之间的土耳其国际收支帐户,以测试由关于经常账户可持续性的两个主要理论概念得出的经常账户可持续性指标的有效性。第一个理论概念被称为“面向经常账户的观点”。这种方法指出,经常账户赤字高企和持续存在可能是国内经济某些结构性脆弱性的结果。这些脆弱性可能来自贸易赤字,预算赤字和储蓄投资缺口。第二种理论概念被称为“面向资本账户的观点”。按照这种方法,经常账户经常账户赤字高企和持续性是投机主导的经济增长和经常账户赤字的主要结果,这是由大量资本流入引起的;结果表明,土耳其的经常账户余额主要由资本金融驱动后国际金融自由化时期的帐户和证券投资子帐户。此外,经常账户余额与资本金融账户余额之间的因果关系是由资本金融账户到经常账户的商品和服务子账户之间的因果关系引起的。最后,根据测试结果,发现以金融账户为导向的指标比传统指标更有效。

著录项

  • 作者

    Bolukoglu, Anil.;

  • 作者单位

    The University of Utah.;

  • 授予单位 The University of Utah.;
  • 学科 Economics General.;Economics Theory.
  • 学位 M.S.
  • 年度 2012
  • 页码 87 p.
  • 总页数 87
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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