Measuring and approximating the effects of forest fires on timber supply in Alberta.

摘要

The cost of reduced harvest levels from land base removals and stochastic events, such as forest fires, can theoretically be measured using shadow prices. It was found that if a land base removal event caused the area to be permanently removed from the productive land base that shadow prices accurately estimated the cost of the event. When the area was assumed to regenerate shadow prices were less effective at estimating the cost of the events. Sequential re-planning was used to test the effect of salvage policies on future timber supply. It was shown that regenerating the post-fire land base stabilized the harvest level through time, but does not significantly increase harvest level. Counting the salvage volume against the AAC increased the benefits to society from the forest while decreasing the benefits to the tenure holder. This increase was caused by decreasing the portion of the burnt area salvaged; increasing habitat for species that require burnt areas for habitat. As well as a decrease in green wood harvest, which increases the amount of old growth forest on the land base.