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The dynamics of vector-borne relapsing diseases.

机译:媒介传播的复发性疾病的动力学。

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摘要

We begin this dissertation with a review of the relevant history and theory behind disease modeling, investigating important motivating examples. The concept of the fundamental reproductive ratio of a disease, R0, is introduced through these examples. The compartmental theory of disease spread and its results are introduced, particularly the next-generation method of computing R0. We review center manifold theory, as it is critical to the reduction of the dimension of our problems. We review diseases that have a relapsing character and focus in on relapsing diseases that are spread by vectors in a host population. The primary example of such a disease is Tick-Borne Relapsing Fever (TBRF). Motivated by TBRF we establish a general model for the spread of a vector-borne relapsing disease. We then compare our model to current literature.;With a model in hand we confirm that it meets the required hypotheses for the use of compartmental theory. A technical computation then leads to an explicit form of R0that is given in terms of the number of relapses. Further technical computations then allow us to describe the bifurcation at R0 = 1, finding that it is always transcritical regardless of the number of relapses. We also show the existence of a unique endemic equilibrium for all values of R 0greater than 1.;Variations of the simple model are explored. Adding in removal to the recovered compartment, in which individuals leave an earlier relapse state and recover, we find how this changes R0and show that the bifurcation at R0is still transcritical. We investigate the addition of latent infective compartments and describe how they affect R0. We also find the reproductive ratio when there are two host species that undergo the same number of relapses.;We establish a continuity result between the reproductive ratios of systems with differing numbers of compartments. This allows us to state the reproductive ratio of a smaller system as a limit of the reproductive ratio of a larger system. This result is then used to compute the reproductive ratio for a coupled host-vector system where the hosts undergo a different number of relapses. We close with some conclusions and directions for future work.
机译:本文首先回顾了疾病建模背后的相关历史和理论,并研究了重要的激励实例。通过这些示例介绍了疾病的基本生殖比R0的概念。介绍了疾病传播的区室理论及其结果,特别是下一代计算R0的方法。我们回顾中心流形理论,因为它对于减小问题的范围至关重要。我们回顾了具有复发特征的疾病,并着重于通过媒介在宿主人群中传播的复发疾病。这种疾病的主要例子是T虱复发热(TBRF)。在TBRF的激励下,我们建立了媒介传播的复发性疾病传播的通用模型。然后,我们将模型与现有文献进行比较。;通过手头模型,我们确认其符合使用隔室理论的要求假设。然后,技术计算得出R0的明确形式,该形式根据复发次数给出。然后,通过进一步的技术计算,我们可以描述R0 = 1处的分叉,发现分叉始终是跨临界的,而与复发次数无关。我们还表明,对于所有大于0的R 0值,都存在唯一的地方均衡;我们探索了简单模型的各种变化。除了将恢复移至已恢复的区室(在该区室中,个体离开较早的复发状态并恢复)外,我们发现其如何改变R0并显示R0的分叉仍然是跨临界的。我们调查潜在的感染隔室的添加,并描述它们如何影响R0。当两个宿主物种经历相同的重复次数时,我们也发现了繁殖率。我们建立了具有不同间隔数的系统的繁殖率之间的连续性结果。这使我们可以将较小系统的生殖比率声明为较大系统的生殖比率的极限。然后,该结果用于计算耦合宿主-载体系统的繁殖率,其中宿主经历不同次数的复发。我们以一些结论和今后工作的方向作为结尾。

著录项

  • 作者

    Palmer, Cody Alan.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Montana.;

  • 授予单位 University of Montana.;
  • 学科 Mathematics.;Epidemiology.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2016
  • 页码 98 p.
  • 总页数 98
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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