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Strategic voting in large elections.

机译:大型选举中的战略投票。

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摘要

The practice of voting is a fundamental part of every modern democracy. Yet, as a mechanism for eliciting and aggregating citizens' preferences, elections are known to be flawed. At least in theory, voters have a systematic incentive to strategically misrepresent their true preferences in order to "manipulate" the outcome of an election. In practice, however, a single vote is almost never pivotal; which raises the obvious empirical question: Do voters actually behave as predicted by rational choice theory? And if so, by how much does strategic voting affect electoral outcomes?;Exploiting a flaw in the German electoral system by which a party may gain seats by receiving fewer votes, the first chapter of this thesis documents patterns of strategic voting in a large, real world election. During the 2005 elections to the Bundestag, the sudden death of a right-wing candidate necessitated a by-election in one electoral district. Knowing the results in all other districts and aware of the paradoxical incentives in place, a substantial fraction of the electorate reacted tactically and either voted for a party other than their most preferred one, or abstained. As a result, the Christian Democratic Union won an additional mandate, extending its narrow lead over the Social Democrats.;The second chapter takes a more general approach in order to estimate estimate the extent of strategic voting as well as its impact on election results. Evidence from reduced form as well as structural methods indicates that almost one third of voters in Germany abandon their most preferred candidate if she is not in contention for victory. As predicted by theory, tactical behavior has a non-trivial impact on individual races. Yet, as one aggregates across districts, these distortions partially offset each other, resulting in considerably more modest effects on the overall distribution of seats.
机译:投票的做法是每个现代民主制度的基本组成部分。但是,作为一种引发和汇总公民偏好的机制,选举是有缺陷的。至少从理论上讲,选民有系统地激励他们从战略上歪曲他们的真实偏好,以便“操纵”选举结果。但是实际上,一次投票几乎从来都不是关键。这就提出了一个明显的经验问题:选民实际上是否按照理性选择理论的预测行事?如果是这样的话,战略投票会在多大程度上影响选举结果?;利用德国选举制度中的一个缺陷,即当事方可以通过减少选票来获得席位,因此本论文的第一章主要介绍了战略投票的模式,现实世界的选举。在2005年联邦议院选举中,右翼候选人突然去世,因此必须在一个选区补选。知道其他所有地区的选举结果并意识到了自相矛盾的诱因后,很大一部分选民在战术上做出了反应,要么投票赞成他们最不喜欢的一方,要么弃权。结果,基督教民主联盟获得了额外的授权,扩大了其对社会民主党的领先地位。第二章采用一种更一般的方法来估计战略投票的程度及其对选举结果的影响。简化形式和结构方法的证据表明,德国近三分之一的选民如果不争夺胜利就放弃他们最喜欢的候选人。正如理论所预言的那样,战术行为对单个种族的影响不小。但是,由于跨地区聚集在一起,这些失真部分相互抵消,从而对座位的总体分配产生了更为适度的影响。

著录项

  • 作者

    Spenkuch, Jorg Ludwig.;

  • 作者单位

    The University of Chicago.;

  • 授予单位 The University of Chicago.;
  • 学科 Economics General.;Political Science General.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2013
  • 页码 115 p.
  • 总页数 115
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 宗教 ;
  • 关键词

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