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Production-inventory systems: Optimal control and empirical analysis.

机译:生产库存系统:最优控制和经验分析。

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摘要

This thesis consists of three independent essays in the area of production and inventory management.;The second essay studies an inventory system that supplies price-sensitive demand modeled by Brownian motion. The optimal pricing and inventory replenishment decisions under both long-run average and discounted objectives are derived, and related to or contrasted with previously known results. In addition, we emphasize the interplay between pricing and replenishment decisions, and the ways in which they react to the demand uncertainty. We show that the joint optimization of both decisions may result in significant profit improvement compared to the traditional method of making decisions separately or sequentially. We also show that multiple price changes result in only a limited profit improvement over the optimal single price.;In the third essay, we examine the inventories of publicly traded American manufacturing companies between 1981 and 2000. The median of inventory holding periods were reduced from 96 days to 81 days. The average rate of inventory reduction is about 2% per year. The greatest reduction was found for work-in-process inventory, which declined by about 6% per year. Finished-goods inventories did not decline. Inventory holdings significantly affect firms' long-term stock returns. Firms with abnormally high inventories have abnormally poor long-term stock returns. Firms with slightly lower than average inventories have good stock returns, but firms with the lowest inventories have only ordinary returns.;The first essay is concerned with a competitive equilibrium production-inventory model with application to the petroleum refining industry. We first examine an individual firm controlling production and inventories and facing uncertain raw material price, finished goods price and operating costs. The firm maximizes the expected discounted profit over an infinite horizon. We show that, the optimal control is of a threshold type. Next, we consider an economy with many raw material suppliers, production firms and consumers. Both the supply and the demand are uncertain and price-sensitive. We establish and characterize the rational expectations equilibrium price process for this economy, and further derive the equilibrium in an explicit form for a special economy. Finally, we simulate the equilibrium model to reproduce some stylized facts of the petroleum refining industry and fit the model with actual data.
机译:本文由生产和库存管理领域的三篇独立论文组成。第二篇论文研究了一种库存系统,该系统可以提供以布朗运动为模型的价格敏感需求。得出长期平均和折现目标下的最佳定价和库存补充决策,并将其与先前已知的结果相关或与之对比。此外,我们强调定价和补货决策之间的相互作用,以及它们对需求不确定性做出反应的方式。我们表明,与传统的单独或顺序决策方法相比,两个决策的联合优化可能会导致利润显着提高。我们还表明,多次价格变动仅会导致最优的单一价格上有限的利润增长。在第三篇文章中,我们研究了1981年至2000年间美国公开交易的制造公司的库存。 96天至81天。每年平均库存减少率约为2%。在制品库存减少最多,每年减少约6%。制成品库存没有下降。库存持有量会显着影响企业的长期股票收益。库存异常高的公司的长期股票收益异常异常。库存量略低于平均水平的公司具有良好的库存收益,但是库存量最低的公司仅具有普通收益。;第一篇文章是关于在石油精炼行业中应用的竞争性均衡生产库存模型。我们首先检查一家控制生产和库存并面临不确定的原材料价格,制成品价格和运营成本的公司。该公司可以在无限的范围内最大化预期的折现利润。我们表明,最佳控制是阈值类型。接下来,我们考虑一个有许多原材料供应商,生产公司和消费者的经济。供需双方都不确定且对价格敏感。我们建立并描述了该经济体的理性预期均衡价格过程,并进一步以一种特殊形式明确推导了特殊经济体的均衡。最后,我们模拟平衡模型以重现石油精炼行业的一些典型事实,并将该模型与实际数据进行拟合。

著录项

  • 作者

    Wu, Owen Qun.;

  • 作者单位

    The University of British Columbia (Canada).;

  • 授予单位 The University of British Columbia (Canada).;
  • 学科 Business Administration Management.;Economics Commerce-Business.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2006
  • 页码 137 p.
  • 总页数 137
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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