Application of simulation to facility planning utilizing an organization's forecasted growth strategy.

摘要

There is a growing imperative for healthcare organizations to utilize a forecasting methodology that suits their complex market, especially when planning the sizing and phasing of a Greenfield site. Conventional analytical techniques are insufficient for accurately depicting the future. A comprehensive, precise, flexible forecasting tool is required if organizations are to overcome the challenges of this industry. Additionally, there must be opportunities to test, modify, and re-test processes until all scenarios are exhausted and organizations know they are not placing capital at undue risk.;This study identified the forecasting methods considered by a specific organization and analyzed the process by which the forecasted data were derived, managed, tested, and utilized. Information extracted from the forecasting methods was translated into scenarios for modeling in a simulation package. Simulation was performed to identify a best-suited scenario that would maximize the existing facility or delineate requirements for a replacement facility that could accommodate future growth.