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An Examination of the Systematic Risks in the Multi-Name Credit and Equity Markets.

机译:多名称信贷和股票市场中的系统性风险检查。

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摘要

The focus of this dissertation is to examine the systematic risks in the multi-name credit and equity markets during the recent financial crisis. We first consider a hybrid intensity-based model that can price both credit and equity instruments, and here, we analyze the multi-name credit spreads and the option-implied volatility skews. Secondly, we develop a top-down utility-indifference model for valuing credit and equity instruments, and in this case, we compare the implied risk aversions of investors in the two markets.;In the first part, we present an intensity-based common factor model that can be used to link the credit market to the equity market. In particular, we use the hybrid intensity model to price single-name credit instruments such as credit default swaps (CDSs), multi-name credit derivatives such as collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), and equity index options such as calls and puts on the S&P 500. The CDS prices have analytical expressions; the CDO prices have to be computed numerically using a recursion algorithm and Fourier transform methods; and the equity index option prices have semi-analytical expressions that are computed using numerical integration. Once we have the expressions for the model prices of these instruments, we then calibrate the model parameters to fit the market data. We study two problems, the "forward'' and "backward'' problems: in the former, we start from equity index options and then compute the CDO tranche spreads, while in the latter, we fit the parameters to the CDO tranche spreads and then back out the equity index option prices and implied volatilities. In both cases, we analyze the systematic risks inherent in the credit and equity markets by examining the tranche spreads and implied volatility skews from the model and the market. We find that based on our hybrid model, the systematic risks in the two markets were similar from 2004 to 2007, while the credit market incorporated far greater systematic risk than the equity market during the financial crisis from 2008 to 2010.;In the second part, we consider a top-down utility-indifference model that incorporates the investor's risk aversion for valuing both multi-name credit derivatives and equity index options. In particular, we assume that the default loss process is a self-exciting counting process in which the intensity is mean-reverting with feedback from defaults, while the stock index process has stochastic variance which also contains feedback from defaults. Now, for the optimal control problem, the investor can invest in the equity/credit derivative, the money market and the stock index. The indifference prices then arise from the Merton and tranche holder's value functions, which are the solutions to systems of multi-variable Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman PDEs. Here, the differential equations can be solved recursively using either finite differences or trinomial trees. From our numerical tests, we find that the investors' implied risk aversions for CDOs were increasing with seniority, whereas the risk aversions for equity put options increased as moneyness levels decreased. In addition, we find that over the 16-month period from June 2009 to September 2010, the largest risk aversions from the credit market far exceeded those from the equity market, indicating greater systematic risk in the credit market during the crisis, consistent with the conclusions from the first part of the thesis.;Lastly, we also discuss two extensions to the top-down model, first where we allow for correlation between the equity, variance, and intensity processes and secondly, where we impose that the stock index drops by proportional amounts at times of default.
机译:本文的重点是研究最近一次金融危机期间多名称信贷和股票市场的系统风险。我们首先考虑一种基于混合强度的模型,该模型可以为信贷和权益工具定价,然后在这里,我们分析多名称信贷利差和期权隐含的波动率偏差。其次,我们建立了一个自上而下的效用-差异模型来评估信贷和权益工具的价值,在这种情况下,我们比较了两个市场中投资者的隐含风险规避。因子模型,可用于将信贷市场与股票市场联系起来。特别是,我们使用混合强度模型对诸如信用违约掉期(CDS)之类的单一名称信用工具,诸如抵押债务义务(CDO)之类的多名称信用衍生工具以及诸如看涨期权和看跌期权之类的股指期权进行定价。标普500。CDS价格具有分析表达式; CDO价格必须使用递归算法和傅立叶变换方法进行数值计算;股指期权价格具有使用数值积分计算的半分析表达式。一旦有了这些工具的模型价格的表达式,我们就可以校准模型参数以适应市场数据。我们研究了两个问题,即“正向”和“向后”问题:在前一种情况下,我们从股权指数期权开始,然后计算CDO档次利差,而在后一种情况下,我们将参数与CDO档次利差进行拟合。然后撤消股指期权价格和隐含波动率。在这两种情况下,我们都通过检查模型和市场的档次价差和隐含的波动率偏差来分析信贷和股票市场固有的系统性风险。我们发现,基于我们的混合模型,两个市场的系统风险在2004年至2007年之间相似,而在2008年至2010年金融危机期间,信贷市场的系统风险远大于股票市场。 ,我们考虑了一种自上而下的效用差异模型,该模型结合了投资者的风险厌恶性,可同时评估多名称信用衍生工具和股票指数期权。特别是,我们假设违约损失过程是一个自激励计数过程,其中强度通过来自违约的反馈进行均值回归,而股票指数过程具有随机方差,其中也包含来自违约的反馈。现在,对于最优控制问题,投资者可以投资于股票/信贷衍生产品,货币市场和股票指数。然后,冷漠的价格来自默顿和付款持有人的价值函数,这是多变量Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman PDE系统的解决方案。在这里,可以使用有限差分或三叉树递归求解微分方程。从我们的数值测试中,我们发现投资者对CDO的隐含风险规避程度随着年资的增加而增加,而股票认沽期权的风险规避则随着金钱水平的降低而增加。此外,我们发现,在2009年6月至2010年9月的16个月中,来自信贷市场的最大风险规避远远超过了来自股票市场的规避,这表明危机期间信贷市场的系统性风险更大,与最后,我们还讨论了自顶向下模型的两个扩展,首先是允许在权益,方差和强度过程之间建立关联,其次是在股指下降的情况下在违约时按比例计算。

著录项

  • 作者

    Choi, Edmond.;

  • 作者单位

    Princeton University.;

  • 授予单位 Princeton University.;
  • 学科 Operations Research.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2013
  • 页码 157 p.
  • 总页数 157
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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