Shock-proof structures? A dynamic model of the construction, maintenance, and demolition of international rivalries.

摘要

Conflict should end international rivalries. Once states resort to arms, there should be no further reason to continue a rivalry as the settlement of the dispute should resolve the issues of the rivalry. Systematic assessments of this contention produce mixed findings: wars end some but not all rivalries. These findings lead to a puzzle, what is the role of dyadic conflict in international rivalries? To answer this question, this research develops the Support, Hostility, and Conflict (SHoC) model, a formal and dynamic model of dyadic rivalry. The three main components of the model are: (1) the level of conflict targeted by each state at the other, (2) domestic support of conflict, and (3) the level of friendship or rivalry in a dyad. To construct the model's equations, I draw upon theoretical and empirical work inside and outside the rivalry paradigm, forming connections across diverse groups of research. I conduct numerical simulations of the equations to generate deductions from the model, which serve as hypotheses for empirical examination. The simulations produce seven novel hypotheses connecting dyadic conflict and the level of hostility present in a dyad to the probability of rivalry formation, the pattern of conflict during a rivalry, and the likelihood of rivalry termination. Together, the deductions demonstrate that dyadic conflict must produce a large shock in order to change rivalry behavior. Long, low-cost conflicts do not diminish public support for conflict enough to alter rivalry behavior; however, a quick, high-cost clash generates a shock that undermines support for future conflict, stemming rivalry behavior. Five of the seven hypotheses are tested using duration analysis. To measure rivalry, I employ a conflict density and a perceptual measure. Results from the empirical test support the deductions of the model; the shock from conflict is associated with rivalry behavior. However, the strength of the connection varies between the different definitions of rivalry. The theoretical and empirical results lead to the conclusion that international intervention is unnecessary when conflict produces a high shock as the rivalries will terminate on their own.