首页> 外文学位 >The Bayesian estimation of the fractal dimension index of fractional Brownian motion.
【24h】

The Bayesian estimation of the fractal dimension index of fractional Brownian motion.

机译:分数布朗运动的分形维数指数的贝叶斯估计。

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例

摘要

The primary purpose of this study was to find Bayesian estimates for the Hurst dimension of a fBm with a Beta prior when the process is observed at both discrete and continuous times. Additionally, this study sought to examine how sensitive is the Bayesian analysis with Beta prior to the choice of parameters of Beta prior. Finally, this study attempted to develop R codes for the research questions.;Using Metropolis-Hastings algorithm of MCMC as well as the assumed proposal distribution of Beta distribution, the Bayesian estimate for the Hurst dimension of a fBm with a Beta prior when the process is observed at discrete times was obtained. For the continuous case, however, the probability measures generated by two different Hurst dimension processes are singular with respect to each other, so it follows that there is no likelihood function for the continuous case.;Overall, the estimated H appears to be greater than the real H. Overestimation is observed though the overestimation is less severe as real H goes up. In addition, the estimated H decreases as Beta parameters go up given an Alpha value. In contrast, the estimated H increases as Alpha parameters go up given a Beta value. For the real-world data, the 2011 daily Taiwan Stock Index was used and the estimated Hurst index was 0.21. Finally, the R codes were successfully developed to implement the simulation in this study using a variety of packages such as "dvfBm," "mnormt," and "mcmcse.".
机译:这项研究的主要目的是找到在离散和连续时间都观察到该过程的fBm的Hurst尺寸的贝叶斯估计。此外,本研究试图检查在选择Beta先验参数之前,使用Beta进行贝叶斯分析的敏感性如何。最后,本研究尝试为研究问题开发R代码。;使用MCMC的Metropolis-Hastings算法以及假定的Beta分布建议分布,在过程进行之前,具有Beta的fBm的Hurst维数的贝叶斯估计获得在离散时间观察到的。但是对于连续情况,由两个不同的Hurst维过程生成的概率测度相对于彼此是奇异的,因此可以得出连续情况不存在似然函数的结论;总的来说,估计的H似乎大于尽管实际H升高,高估的严重程度降低,但仍会观察到高估。此外,在给定Alpha值的情况下,随着Beta参数的增加,估计的H值会降低。相反,在给定Beta值的情况下,估计的H随着Alpha参数的增加而增加。对于真实世界的数据,使用2011年每日台湾股票指数,估计的赫斯特指数为0.21。最终,成功开发了R代码,以使用各种程序包(例如“ dvfBm”,“ mnormt”和“ mcmcse”)来实施本研究中的仿真。

著录项

  • 作者

    Chen, Chen-Yueh.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Northern Colorado.;

  • 授予单位 University of Northern Colorado.;
  • 学科 Statistics.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2013
  • 页码 132 p.
  • 总页数 132
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱:kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备:11010802029741号 ICP备案号:京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有
  • 客服微信

  • 服务号