Automobile pollution control in China: Enforcement of and compliance with vehicle emission standards.

摘要

Since the 1990s, many large Chinese cities have experienced serious air pollution problems due to the emissions increases associated with the rapid growth of automobile ownership. Issuing and enforcing vehicle emission standards are two of the most effective approaches to reducing automotive emissions. This dissertation examines the formulation and implementation of the so-called "Euro series" (i.e., Euro I, Euro II, etc.) of vehicle emission standards in China.; The first part of my dissertation emphasizes decision making on the local level. The analysis revolves around a critical event in formulating and issuing emission standards for new vehicles. In 1999, two central agencies, the State Environmental Protection Administration (SEPA) and the State Bureau of Quality and Technical Supervision (SBQTS), simultaneously issued inconsistent, mandatory vehicle emissions regulations. Prominent inter-ministerial conflicts of this magnitude had rarely been publicized in the past. These inconsistencies in national-level regulations led me to formulate my first research question: how and why did this conflict occur? Following negotiations in 2001, SBQTS, and a second agency representing the interests of the auto industry accepted the standards proposed by SEPA. This dissertation analyzes the reasons for and the implications of this outcome.; The second part of my dissertation concerns compliance with emission standards for in-use vehicles that were required to meet the Euro I standards in Beijing. This part of my research is based on an exploratory statistical analysis of a data set from sixteen annual vehicle-testing I stations in Beijing. The data was collected based on the Acceleration Simulation Mode (ASM) method. Logistic regression methods were applied to investigate how a group of covariates (i.e., vehicle model type, model year, inspection station, ownership and registration area) predicts the probability that a vehicle fails an annual emissions test on the first try. Results demonstrate that some specific vehicle models are more likely to fail emissions tests than an "average" vehicle. In addition to the finding about vehicle models, other interesting and counter-intuitive results were identified and analyzed.; This dissertation demonstrates that Chinese environmental agencies are gradually increasing in overall influence. Their growth has been slow, but this slow pace is unsurprising, especially given that not only are these agencies still nascent, but that they are at the mercy of the most influential participants in the Chinese bureaucracy. Environmental goals will only be met if China's top administrators and economic policy-makers change their behavior in ways that advance environmental protection.