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Semi-parametric evaluation of rapid rate-of-change proportional intensity models for repairable systems with censoring.

机译:带有检查的可修复系统快速变化率比例强度模型的半参数评估。

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摘要

This research investigates the robustness of four leading proportional intensity (PI) models: PWP-gap time (PWP-GT), PWP-total time (PWP-TT), Andersen-Gill (AG), and Wei-Lin-Weissfeld (WLW), for right-censored recurrent failure event data that follow a Non-homogeneous Poisson Process (NHPP) with log-linear constant or increasing intensity function. The results are beneficial to practitioners in anticipating the more favorable applications domains and selecting appropriate PI models for monitoring failure trends and for decisions in preventive maintenance, service parts inventory, and repair versus replacement. The experimental design has incorporated four levels of censoring severity, three levels of sample size, and seven levels of shape parameter to evaluate these four proposed PI models. The effect of failure event count is also studied. The models of choice are the PWP-GT (for increasing rate of occurrence of failures and low event count) and AG (for constant rate of occurrence of failures), evaluated in terms of three robustness metrics: bias, mean absolute deviation, and mean squared error of covariate regression coefficients. The more favorable engineering application ranges are recommended. Robustness of the PWP-GT for the case of an underlying log-linear increasing intensity function tends to be sensitive to the failure event count. For lower failure counts (N ≤ 4), the PWP-GT proves to perform well for moderate to severe right-censoring (40% to 80% of units censored), constant and moderately increasing rates of occurrence of failure (log-linear NHPP shape parameter in the range of 0 ≤ theta ≤ 0.01), and small to large sample size (60 ≤ U ≤ 180). The AG model proves to outperform the PWP-TT and WLW for stationary process (HPP) across a wide range of right censorship (0% to 100%) and for sample size of 60 or more. A highly automated SAS macro proved to be a valuable tool for the research infrastructure in this and future studies.;Keywords. repairable systems reliability, right-censoring, recurrent events, proportional intensity models, log-linear intensity function
机译:这项研究调查了四个主要的比例强度(PI)模型的鲁棒性:PWP间隔时间(PWP-GT),PWP总计时间(PWP-TT),Andersen-Gill(AG)和Wei-Lin-Weissfeld(WLW) ),对于遵循非对等泊松过程(NHPP)且具有对数线性常数或强度增加函数的右删失复发事件数据。该结果对从业人员有益于预期更有利的应用领域,并选择适当的PI模型以监视故障趋势以及预防性维护,维修零件清单以及维修与更换方面的决策。实验设计包含了四个级别的检查严重性,三个级别的样本大小和七个级别的形状参数,以评估这四个拟议的PI模型。还研究了故障事件计数的影响。选择的模型是PWP-GT(用于增加故障发生率和低事件计数)和AG(用于恒定故障发生率),它们根据三个稳健性指标进行评估:偏差,平均绝对偏差和均值协变量回归系数的平方误差。建议使用更有利的工程应用范围。对于潜在的对数线性增加强度函数,PWP-GT的鲁棒性倾向于对故障事件计数敏感。对于较低的故障计数(N≤4),PWP-GT被证明在中度到严重的右检查(检查的单元的40%到80%),故障发生率恒定和适度增加方面表现良好(对数线性NHPP)形状参数的范围为0≤theta≤0.01),并且样本大小从小到大(60≤U≤180)。事实证明,AG模型在广泛的权利审查范围(0%至100%)和60个或更多样本的固定过程(HPP)方面均优于PWP-TT和WLW。事实证明,高度自动化的SAS宏对于本研究和将来的研究是研究基础结构的宝贵工具。可修复系统的可靠性,右删失,重复事件,比例强度模型,对数线性强度函数

著录项

  • 作者

    Zhou, Jindan.;

  • 作者单位

    The University of Oklahoma.;

  • 授予单位 The University of Oklahoma.;
  • 学科 Engineering Industrial.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2007
  • 页码 100 p.
  • 总页数 100
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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