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The effects of China’s outward foreign direct investment on export in ASEAN

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Summary

摘要

Chapter 1:Introduction

1.1 Research background and purpose

1.1.1 Research background

1.1.2 Theoretical significance

1.1.3 Practical significance

1.2 The research content,structure,innovation and deficiency of this paper

1.2.1 Research content

1.2.2 Thesis structure

1.2.3 The innovation of the thesis

1.2.4 The shortcomings of this thesis

Chapter 2:Summary of the literature on the export effect of foreign direct investment

2.1 Summary of relevant Hterature on foreign direct investment and trade export

2.1.1 Summary of alternative relationships between foreign direct investment and trade export

2.1.2 Summary of the complementary relationship between foreign direct investment andtrade exports

2.1.3 Summary of uncertain relationships between Foreign Direct Investment and trade exports

2.2 Review of the relationship between China’s direct investment in ASEAN and the export of trade

2.3 Summary of relevant literature at home and abroad

Chapter 3 Analysis of China’s Trade Export and Direct Investment in ASEAN

3.1 Analysis of China-ASEAN trade export

3.1.1 Rapid growth in total exports

3.1.2 China’s exports to ASEAN account for a steady increase in the share of China’s total exports

3.1.3 The types of export commodities are constantly optimized

3.1.4 The proportion of countries is not balanced

3.2 China’s direct investment in ASEAN

3.2.1 Total investment in compare with other economic regions

3.2.2 Total investment growth

3.2.3 The gap of investment in the host countries

3.2.4 Expanding the scope of investment field

3.3 Comprehensive analysis of China’s trade and direct investment in ASEAN

Chapter 4 Theoretical analysis of the export effect of China’s direct investment in ASEAN

4.1 Category of export effects of international direct investment

4.1.1 Trade creation effect

4.1.2 Market expansion effect

4.1.3 Export substitution effect

4.1.4 Technology spillover effects

4.1.5 Income creation effect

4.2 The export effect transmission mechanism of different motives direct investment

4.2.1 Market seeking type

4.2.2 Efficiency Seeking Type

4.2.3 Resource Seeking Type

4.2.4 Technology seeking type

4.3 The export effect transmission mechanism of China’s direct investment in ASEAN

4.3.2 The impact mechanism of export effect of China’s direct investment on ASEAN

Chapter 5 Empirical analysis of the export effect of China’s direct investment on ASEAN

5.1 Overview of trade gravity model

5.2 Construction and derivation of trade gravity model

5.2.1 Derivation of gravity model under non-trade friction

5.2.2 Derivation of gravity model with trade friction

5.2.3 Gravity model correction and the introduction of variables

5.3 Selection of variables,expected effects and model formulas

5.3.1 Selection of variables

5.3.2 Expected effects of variables

5.3.3 Model and formula

5.4 Test methods and empirical results

5.4.1 Unit root test and cointegration test

5.4.2 Inspection methods

5.4.3 Empirical results

5.5 Country analysis of export effects

5.5.1 Theoretical assumptions

5.5.2 Model selection

5.5.3 Test results

Chapter 6 Conclusions and Policy Recommendations

6.1 The main conclusions

6.2 Policy recommendations

6.2.2 Government-level reeommendations

References

致谢

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摘要

对两个国家和企业来说出口和对外直接投资(FDI)都非常重要。对跨国公司来说,出口可以开拓新的市场,而对外直接投资可以使跨国公司绕过贸易壁垒,充分利用当地的资源,同时,跨国公司可以顺利地发展。对于一个国家来说,出口贸易对经济增长有重要的作用,FDI可以促进跨国公司的成长和转型,从而带动整个国家的产业升级。然而,在过去的半个世纪里,对外直接投资和出口的关系是还没有确定的结论。关于这个问题有很多不同的看法,一些学者认为外商直接投资可以增强企业的实力和减少出口贸易,另一些学者认为外商直接投资可以促进本国中间产品的出口。其他学者又认为,替代效应和促进效应都存在于不同的行业和国家。  近年来,中国与东盟经济交往的日益频繁。在2010年,已正式成立中国-东盟自由贸易区。中国对东盟出口增长到两倍左右,FDI流量增加1.77倍。在本文中,将探讨中国对东盟的外直接投资促进出口或出口替代的问题”。本文主要的内容包括外文献的综述、分析了出口贸易和FDI的不同国家之间的关系  对对外直接投资的出口影响的五种类型,本文分析了贸易创造:从生产线的正效应,资本设备和中间产品;通过外贸公司开拓市场的积极作用,销售网络和服务;负出口替代效应对海外公司的竞争带来的技术扩散引起的;技术溢出的积极和消极影响;由东道国的就业造成了收入创造积极的影响。  本文分析了对外直接投资动机的不同出口的传导机制的影响。市场寻求型的对外直接投资导致贸易的收入效应和市场扩张效应在建设初期,导致海外企业成熟后替代了效应出口;由于生产效率的垂直整合,寻求海外投资、出口国、生产国、组装和销售国家等,市场扩张效应与贸易创造效应同时造成。资源寻求型的对外直接投资导致从采矿设备从母国进口贸易创造效应、出口替代效应,如果企业生产的产品在当地的资源和市场的利用。  膨胀效应将发生如果企业船舶资源回本国生产的工业制成品;技术寻求型的对外直接投资更容易获得技术和提高产品质量,促进商品和服务的出口,并导致影响技术溢出。不管对外直接投资是有什么原因来的,它们都带来新就业和收入给当地人。此外,根据FDI和出口的实际情况,探讨了中国的对外直接投资对东盟出口效应的传导机制。然后,基于量数据,建立了引力模型,其中包括人均GDP、航空运输、铁路运输和通信基础设施等变量。进行数据的回归分析后,提出结果是,中国对东盟的直接投资促进了出口贸易增产。每1%中国FDI的增加可以使0.173%的出口贸易增加。此外,本文选择了变系数模型检验统计量的使用与个人的出口影响的差异。最后,总结并提出政策建议。

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