PV generation short-term forecasting using Grey Th

目录

1. Introduction

1.1 Introduction to Solar Power Forecasting

1.2 Influence of weather on PV generation

1.3 Types of PV systems

1.4 Forecasting background review

1.5 Research Objectives

1.6 Thesis outline

2. Analysis of Grey System Theory

2.1 Grey Relational Space

2.2 Grey Modeling

2.3 Grey Prediction Control

2.4 Summary

3. Modeling and Methodology

3.1 Data Analysis

3.2 Modeling Tool and Data source

3.3 Geographical Conditions

3.4 250kW Grid connected PV power plant modeling

3.5 Forecast Schematic

3.6 Available models

3.7 Forecasting accuracy models of grey theory

3.8 Grey-Markov Model

3.9 Summary

4. Short-term PV generation Forecasting

4.1 Case selection

4.2 PV short-term forecasting in clear weather conditions

4.3 PV short-term forecasting in rainy conditions

4.4 PV short-term forecasting in cloudy conditions

4.5 Forecasting results analysis

4.6 Forecasting accuracy during data fluctuation

4.7 Weather effect on forecasting accuracy

4.8 Evaluation of predicted value

4.9 Summary

5. Conclusion and further research

5.1 Conclusion

5.2 Direction of Future work

致谢

参考文献