绿色制造实施中的决策方法研究

摘要

在全球范围内，人们越来越关注能源消耗和二氧化碳排放问题，因而绿色制造获得了非常多的关注。有效的成本估算和可持续供应商的选择是确保企业盈利和绿色制造成功实施的关键。选择可持续的供应商是绿色制造的前提条件，工程管理者必须确保供应商维持其长期状态。此外，实施绿色制造的成本效益由工程管理人员确定;现实情况是，绿色制造往往与成本的理由同样重要。这些使得有效的动态建模技术变得十分必要。
　　文献中大多数绿色制造决策的相关研究基于静态的数学建模技术。在运筹学中，静态数学建模技术无法将实际情况的所有变量纳入决策支持模型。
　　系统动力学在分析和管理那些开发周期长、具有极端的反馈效果特点的系统方面有明显的优势。它被认为是一种有效的动态建模技术。因此，本文提出一种在绿色制造环境中的系统动力学建模方法，提供全面的决策评价、供应商支持和成本估算。系统动力学模型的优点在于它面向绿色制造的供应商管理决策过程和相关碳成本管理提供有价值的信息。本文拟将这一强大的动态建模技术应用于绿色制造中典型的供应商选择和成本管理的问题。
　　首先，系统动力学模型分析制造公司可持续性因素之间的相互依赖关系和并对可持续性因素进行简化。然后，简化后的可持续性因素被集成到模糊逻辑系统动力学模型，为可持续供应商的选择提供支持。最后，所选择的可持续供应商的成本约束被施加于改进的集成的基于过程的成本模型和系统动力学模型，以确定实施绿色制造成本。
　　本文阐述系统动力学建模技术在绿色制造环境中的供应商选择问题和成本决策支持工具方面的优越性。该研究的主要重点是绿色制造的供应商和成本管理。该决策方法提供了绿色制造基础上可持续的供应商选择以及减少碳排放要素的成本估算依据。它也能够同时提供制造产品的详细生命周期评估。
　　总之，本文开发的新的建模方法可有效地分析制造公司的相关可持续性因素，将这些可持续性因素应用于动态的供应商监测技术，并将生命周期评估测量应用到制造成本管理中。这种方法可以协助工程经理分析供应商的可持续的行为，并预测实施绿色制造的成本。

目录

声明

Abstract

摘要

CONTENTS

List of Figures

List of Tables

List of Acronyms

1 Introduction

1．1． Background

1．2 Problem Statement

1．3．Research Objectives

1．4．Modeling Approach

1．5．Systems Dynamics Concept

1．5．1．Stocks and Flows

1．5．2．Delay

1．5．3．Feedback

1．6． Outline of Thesis

2 Literature Review

2．1． Outfine

2．2．Sustainability Factors

2．3．Multi-criteria Decision Making Models

2．3．1．DEMTEL

2．3．2．AHP

2．3．3．TOPSIS

2．4．Process-based Costing Model

2．5．Systems Dynamics Modeling Approach

2．6．Chapter Summary

3 Methodology

3．1．Outline

3．2．Fundamental Steps of Systems Dynamics Model

3．3．Positive and Negative Causal Effects and Feedback Loops

3．4．General Principles of Formulation of Systems Dynamics Models

3．5．Chapter Summary

4 Analysis of Sustainability Factors

4．1．Outline

4．2．Case Study and Problem Specifications

4．2．1．Input Data of Sustainability Factors

4．2．2．Linguistic scale

4．2．3 Alternatives

4．3．Systems Dynamics for Analysis of Sustainability Factors

4．4．Fuzzy-DEMATEL based calculations

4．5．Results of Fuzzy-DEMATEL and Systems Dynamics Model

4．6．Comparing Results of Fuzzy-DEMATEL and Systems Dynamics Model for Sustainability Factors

4．7．Chapter Summary

5 Systems Dynamics Model for Sustainable Supplier Selection

5．1．Outline

5．2．Formulation of Systems Dynamics Model for Sustainable SupplierSelection

5．3．Multi-criteria decision making model(MCDM)

5．4．Data Sourcing for Sustainable Supplier Selection

5．4．1．Temporal Discounting

5．4．2．Questionnaire Design for Sustainable Supplier Selection

5．5．Results of Systems Dynamics Model for Sustainable Supplier Selection

5．5．1 Input Data for Simulation Model

5．6．ResuRs of Multi-Criteria Decision Making Model

5．7．Comparing Results of Systems Dynamics Model and Fuzzy-TOPSIS based MCDM

5．8．Chapter Summary

6 Research on Decision Making Approach for Implementation of Green ManufacturingSystems Dynamics Model for Costing of Green Manufacturing Based on Constraints of Suppliers

6．1．Outline

6．2．Improved Activity-Based Costing Model

6．2．1．Material Costs

6．2．2．Wage Costs

6．2．3．Equipment Costs

6．2．4．Energy-Saving Activity Costs

6．2．5．Life Cycle Carbon Emission Costs

6．2．6．Total Life Cycle Carbon Emissions

6．3．Traditional Activity-Based Costing Model

6．3．1．Costs

6．3．2．Activities

6．3．3．Products

6．3．4．Cost drivers

6．3．5．Process

6．3．6．Assumptions and Limitations of Traditional ABC

6．3．7．Wage(Manpower)Cost

6．3．8．Material，Equipment and Overhead Cost

6．3．9． Energy Cost

6．4．Questionnaire Design for Costing of Green Manufacturing

6．5．Results of Integrated Improved Activity-Based Costing and Systems Dynamics Model

6．6．Comparing Traditional Activity-Based Cost Model and Improved Activity-Based Cost Model

6．7．Chapter Summary

7 Model Vafidation

7．1．Outline

7．2．Justification for Study of Sustainable Supplier Selection Problem

7．2．1．Model Formulation

7．2．2．Questionnaire Design of Justification for study of Sustainable Suppfier Selection

7．2．3．Results of the Integrated TOPSIS and Systems Dynamics Model

7．3．Uncertainty

7．3．1．Triangular Fuzzy Numbers

7．4．Sensitivity Analysis

7．5．Chapter Summary

8 Conclusions

8．1．Contribution to Analysis of Sustainability Factors

8．2．Contribution to Systems Dynamics Model for Sustainable Supplier Selection

8．3．Contdbufion to Systems Dynamics Model for Costing of Green Manufacturing

8．4．Appfication Scope of Modeling Approach

8．5．Disadvantages of Systems Dynamics Modefing Approach

8．6．Future Research Direction

Abstract of Innovation Points

References

APPENDICES

Acknowledgements

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