巴基斯坦（旁遮普省）农业生产结构调整及优化模型

摘要

根据当前旁遮普的农业生产结构现状，为实现省与国家的农业可持续发展，农业生产结构调整显得至关重要。因此，研究基于特定区域优势的数学模型的建立方法具有重要意义。通过这些数学方法，使用定量研究，分析存在的问题并提出一个具有科学性和战略性的计划。此计划既可以被考虑在实际选择又可用作为研究参考。本文将把不同被用于最近的工业或生产调整问题研究的数学模型进行评估和研究。在当前旁遮普省现有经济技术条件的基础上，制定了多目标优化模型。经济发展，社会福利和生态平衡三个目标都体现在结构调整的优化模型。通过计算机计算结果，我们得到了调整方案相应的不同生产结构调整的策略。然后，采用数据包络分析DEA估计每个方案的农业综合生产能力，最终选择最优的解决方案。本研究主要由以下五个方面组成:
　　1.应用信息学理论与方法，计算农业生产结构的稳定性，以及引入熵的概念。在程式里面，每个方案的生产值所占的比例可以被替换成相应的可能性。除了其他指标，我们适当的对现有的生产结构的估计进行考虑。
　　2.基于全面系统的分析，建立了农业生产结构的多目标优化模型。在策略多元化的基础上，控制参数的输入反映不同的调整方案。优化软件程序Lingo是用来解决相应的优化调整方案。
　　3.多方案的DEA综合评价。本文中，DEA综合评价方法构建了非阿基米德无穷小ε，DEA模型C2R和C2GS2第一次被用于当地的农业生产结构研究。每个调整方案作为生产决策单元(DMU)而对其的相对效率进行评价和优化。通过这方法，我们分析其的相对技术和规模效率。DEA有效的决策单元和非DEA有效的决策单元存在着很明显的区别。基于这些结果，我们可以获得有益于管理的信息。将引入冗余率和产出不足率，并探讨可能导致低效率的原因。对各方案进行规模报酬分析，采用合适的生产规模。这些分析非常有利于找出改善这些方案的方法。基于投影定理在非DEA相对有效前沿面上，建立新技术和规模效率。
　　4.采用一种新决策单元排序方法，通过引入理想决策单元-最小投入与最大产出，对传统的DEA评价模型的改进有所相应变化。“效率评价指数”的概念使用于一组对每个方案合理的公共权重。
　　5.本研究结果对促进我省旁遮普农业生产战略调整具有一定的理论意义和实践价值。优化多目标模型能够根据目标和策略对优化方案进行求解。DEA综合评价指出了进一步修改和优化方案的方向，为合理有效的结构调整政策的制定提供了科学依据。最后，方案2反映了旁遮普省农业生产结构调整的目标和需求，具有一定的实际应用价值。
　　在本文中，数学模型方法在农业经济问题研究中的应用，有利于探索和实践。其也可以应用于相关领域的研究。

目录

声明

摘要

Abstract

1 Introduction

1．1 Thesis Writing Background，Purpose and Significance

1．2 Literature Review

1．2．1 Domestic Research about Agricultural Production Structure

1．2．2 Research in China about Agricultural Production Structure or DEA Model

1．2．3 Research Abroad Using DEA Model

1．3 Researches’ Main Content and Methodology

2 Relevant Concepts and the Basis of Agricultural Production Structure

2．1 Agricultural Production Structure

2．1．1 Basic Characteristics of Agricultural Production Structure

2．1．2 Optimization of Agricultural Structure

2．2 Data Envelopment Analysis

2．3 Advantages of DEA Comprehensive Evaluation Method

3 Analysis on the Current Situation of Provincial Agricultural Production Structure

3．1 Punjabs’ Natural Resource Conditions and the Development of Rural Economy

3．2 Punjab’s Current Agricultural Production Structure Analysis

3．3 Quantitative Evaluation of Agricultural Production Structure

3．3．1 Quantitative Evaluation of Produetion Structure

3．4 Punjabs’ Agricultural Production Structure Status Evaluation with Existing Problems

3．5 Other Existing Problems，Their Causes and Impacts

3．5．1 Large Proportion Of Planting，Partially Low Focused Production Structure

3．5．2 Production of Major Food Crops as Compared to Economic Crops Development

3．5．3 Regional Distribution is not Obvious，the Adjustment of Production Structure

3．5．4 Rural Poverty：Empowering the Poor

3．5．5 Corporate Farming：Should It be Encouraged in Labor Surplus Economies?

3．5．6 Economic Research on Key Agriculture (and Trade Related) Issues

3．5．7 Low Productivity and Socio-economic Imbalances

4 Establishment and Application of Punjabs’ Agricultural Production Structure Adjustment and Optimization Model

4．1 System Limitations and Selection of Decision Variables

4．2 Establishment of the Main Auxiliary Model and the Selected Parameters

4．2．1 Mathematical Model for Predicting Overall Provincial Population snd Rural Population Growth

4．2．2 Consumer Demand Forecast

4．2．3 Determining the Main Parameters of Planting Industry and Animal Husbandry

4．2．4 Soils’ Nitrogen，Phosphorus and Potassium Circulation and Organic Matter Balance Model

4．3 Fisheries and Forestry-Related Data

4．4 Establishing a Multi Objective System

4．5 Restraint Conditions

4．5．1 Resource Constraints

4．5．2 Social Requirements Constraints

4．5．3 Ecological Balance Requirements

4．5．4 Other Constraint Conditions

4．6 Operation and Prediction Results of the Model

4．6．1 Weighted Summation

4．6．2 Determining the Main Parameters of the Schemes

5 DEA Comprehensive Evaluation and Selection of Adjustment Scheme

5．1 The Evaluation and Rationalization of the Production Structure Schemes

5．2 DEA Comprehensive Evaluation of Production Efficiency of Before and After Production System Adjustment

5．2．1 Selecting Input and Output of Each Decision Making Unit

5．2．2 Select Appropriate DEA Evaluation Theory Model

5．2．3 Establishing Evaluation Model and Writing Programming Solution

5．2．4 Determining the DEA Effectiveness of Each Scheme

5．3 Relative Effectiveness Evaluation of Adjustment Schemes

5．3．1 C2R models’ Relative Effectiveness Evaluation of Every Scheme

5．3．2 Evaluation Model C2GS2 of Adjustment Scheme

5．4 DEA Evaluation Model of Management Information

5．4．1 Projection of DEA Efficient DMUs on the Frontier Surface

5．4．2 Analysis of scale advantage and enhancement on not DEA-efficient DMU

5．4．3 Analysis of scale advantage

5．5 Categorizing and Choosing the Optimal Scheme

5．5．1 Setting Up an Ideal DMU(DMUj)

5．5．2 Developing the Evaluation DEA Model

5．5．3 DMUs Ranking

5．6 Comprehensive Evaluation Results of Every Scheme

6 Conclusion

6．1 Innovation

6．2 Policy Suggestions of Adjustment program evaluation findings

6．3 Discussion

致谢

References

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