Uncertainty Network Planning Methodology Based on the Connection Number a + bi + cj

摘要

The connection number a+bi+cj, a new kind of number introduced in Set Pair Analysis (SPA) theory, was used in uncertain network planning methodology to represent the uncertainty and delay of working procedure time, it is caused by random, fuzzy, indeterminate-known or unforeseen factors and unexpected incident in a project. By introducing the concepts of primary critical paths, secondary critical paths and third critical paths and classifying method of critical paths in uncertainty environment, we constructed a new uncertainty network planning method that is different from the traditional one and more consistent with the practice application, because the new one can obtain three different sets of critical paths instead of only one critical path obtained by traditional. The illustrating examples given in this paper indicate that the new method can provide more useful information for the finish time forecasting and controlling of a project.