The Probability Distribution of Binary Pulsar Coalescence Rates

摘要

Inspiraling binary systems are good candidates for being detected by ground-based gravitational-wave detectors. In this work, we present a statistical analysis method to estimate the coalescence rate of pulsar binary systems, such as double neutron star (NS-NS) and neutron star-white dwarf (NS-WD) binaries. The method involves the simulation of selection effects inherent in all relevant radio pulsar surveys and a Bayesian analysis to calculate the probability distribution function of the total coalescence rate. One of the advantages of this method is that it can be applied to any type of pulsar population. Based on our reference model of pulsar characteristics, we find that the most likely value of the total Galactic coalescence rate of NS-NS binaries is 8_(-5)~(+9) Myr~(-1), and that of NS - WD binaries is 3_(-2)~(+3) Myr~(-1) at a 68% confidence level. We also estimate the corresponding detection rate of NS-NS binaries and obtain 3 _(-2)~(+4) x 10~(-3) yr~(-1) for the initial LIGO and 18_(-11)~(+21) yr~(-1) for the advanced LIGO.