Hydrological Perspective on QPE/QPF

摘要

The main purpose of hydrological service is to provide real-time decision-making support for flood-related disaster management and water resources management. Precipitation inputs are used in hydrologic runoff and snow-melt models to generate estimates of discharges and stages of streamflow, or used in flash flood prediction models to issue early warning of rainfall-triggered sediment disasters. Therefore, precipitation inputs, strongly influence real-time hydrologic forecasts. Precipitation inputs consist of quantitative precipitation estimations (QPEs), satellite-based precipitation measurements, and quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs). The accuracy of hydrologic products is largely dependent on the accuracy of QPE and skill of QPF. This paper describes briefly the hydrological service and its input, hydrological modeting approaches and hydrological perspectives on QPE/QPF in aspects of catchment hydrological forecasting, sediment disaster and flash flood prediction, reservoir operation and etc. It analyses the possible reasons that QPE/QPF products have not been used very extensively in aspects of hydrological service and water-related disaster reduction The paper finally points out that QPE/QPF for hydrologic forecasting and prediction could be strengthened through an end-to-end evaluation that assesses QPE/QPF quality and impacts on flood and streamflow products, and direct communications between meteorologists and hydrologists should be engaged in real time operational forecasting to understand each other.