PUBLIC CONFIDENCE IN THE P REDICTED PERFORMANCE OF NATURAL ANALOGUES – ONE WAY TO HELP BUILDA MINED GEOLOGIC REPOSITORY FOR NUCLEAR WASTE

摘要

The general public needs to have a way to judge the predicted long-term performance of thepotential high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. The applicability and reliabilityof mathematical models used to make this prediction are neither easily understood nor acceptedby the public. Natural analogues can provide the average person with a tool to assess thepredicted performance and other scientific conclusions. For example, hydrologists with theYucca Mountain Project have predicted that most of the water moving through the unsaturatedzone at Yucca Mountain, Nevada will move through the host rock and around tunnels. Thus,seepage into tunnels is predicted to be a small percentage of available infiltration. Thishypothesis can be tested experimentally and with some quantitative analogues. It can also betested qualitatively using a variety of analogues such as (1) well-preserved Paleolithic toNeolithic paintings in caves and rock shelters, (2) biological remains preserved in caves and rockshelters, and (3) artifacts and paintings preserved in man-made underground openings. Theseexamples can be found in materials that are generally available to the non-scientific public andcan demonstrate the surprising degree of preservation of fragile and easily destroyed materialsfor very long periods of time within the unsaturated zone.