OIL: ARE WE RUNNING Our?

摘要

Predictions of imminent oil shortages have been made throughout the twentieth century. Although all previous predictions have been false, in recent years a new generation of predictions based on the Hubbert model has become ascendant and has attracted media attention. The Hubbert model assumes that a resource is limited and finite. Although conventional oil supplies are finite, it has proved difficult to estimate the size of the ultimate resource. In the last 50 years, estimates of the size of the world's conventional crude-oil resources have increased faster than cumulative production. The estimated size of the ultimate resource base will continue to increase in the future as unconventional fossil fuels come on-line. Oil production from Canadian tar sands has already begun. Unconventional oil resources such as tar sands and oil shales are likely to replace conventional oil and ensure a supply of petroleum for about 100 to 1000 years. The only uncertainty concerns the nature of the transition from conventional to unconventional oil resources. The transition may be slow and seamless with no economic disruptions, or it may be characterized by a difficult transition period. In the long run, nuclear power has the potential to provide large amounts of power for very long periods of time if low-grade uranium is used in breeder reactors. The technology and resources to use nuclear power already exist. Limitations on the energy used by our technological civilization are not imposed by finite resources but by social and political attitudes.