Research on Probability Prediction of Rural-urban Land Conversion –A Case study in D District, H City

摘要

Based on the benefit-cost analysis and probability theory, a Probit model was used to explore the probability of ruralurban land conversion and its spatial distribution which neither simply based on past transition proportions nor as simple functions of what are often called “socioeconomic drivers”. It took account of parcel attributes variables, economic characteristic variables and land conversion policies in the model, and the data of these variables were derived from Geographic Information System database and Yearbooks about D District, H City. On the ground of regression analysis, this study showed that (1) the agricultural land conversion possibility was significantly affected by the neighboring land use pattern. (2) There would be 41.36 hm 2 agricultural lands with high conversion probability,and 371.42 hm 2 with middle conversion probability. (3)According to the prediction of conversion probability, the prime farmland should be strictly managed and controlled which lay in Xincun Village 、Guanshan Village 、Gangtie Village and Xianjian Village with high conversion probability. However, undeveloped land should be preferential conversed in Wufengxin Village 、Nanhu Village 、Yuguang Village 、Qingling Village and Yuye Village.After the theoretical and empirical study, the paper implied that when the government constituted the land use plan or urban plan, they should adequately consider the land site-specific attributes, spatial correlation among neighboring parcels, and the relationship between planning and the rural-urban conversion probability.