Usng probabilistic risk assessment for environmental decision-Making: principles and a case study

摘要

Techniques have been developed for the separation of variability and uncertainty in Monte Carlo simulation. These techniques are presently being applied to environmental risk assessmetn (Burmaster & Wilson, 1996; Goodrum et al, 1996; Hoffman & Hammonds, 1992 Morgan & Henrion, 1990; USEPA, 1997). The general goal of the use of these various techniques is to enable the determination of the level of uncertainty associated with each of multiple descriptors of risk. To dte, no systematic comparison of the various methods has been attempted. This paper attempts such a comarison in terms of the risk estimates produced by the various methods, the health-protectiveness (or lack thereof) of the various methods and the level of effort required.