Threshold21 Mali: System Dynamics-based national development planning in Mali

摘要

This paper describes how the Threshold21 Model developed for the Government of Mali has been used to support the preparation of the five-year strategic plan for the country. The model proven useful at different levels in the planning process: (1) it enabled testing the coherence of data collected; (2) provided insights into the future development of current issues and the emergence of new challenges in the Business-As-Usual scenario; (3) supported the discussion of alternative policies and development paths; and (4) provided a basis for monitoring and evaluation of implemented policies. This paper reports of the use of the model at levels (2) and (3), describing how it enabled an open discussion on the critical assumptions for economic growth to be used in the strategic plan, and on the delays involved in the country's growth process. Results from the model have been eventually incorporated in the national strategic plan.