Numerical modeling and warning procedure for Gonu super cyclone along Iranian Coastlines

摘要

Gonu super cyclone which occurred on 2-7 June 2007 was the strongest tropical cyclone to hit the Arabian Peninsula. This paper discusses the process we followed to numerically simulate this cyclone and its resulting waves in the southern seas of Iran. In this regard, the Gonu wind field was simulated using forecasted cyclone data for different scenarios based on varying cyclone radii. These wind fields were input to a wave model which was previously set up and calibrated for the Iranian southern seas. Then, the wave results were reported to the responsible authorities. This effort allowed the government to warn people living in the high-risk areas of Iranian coastlines, allowing for the evacuation of over 40,000 people. After the cyclone passed, researchers again simulated the Gone-induced wave field using a calibrated, time-dependent radius cyclone wind field, incorporated parametric wave data as a boundary condition and used the measured wind and wave data for verification of the results. Results of the new wave model were used for extreme value analysis of waves.