Applying System Dynamics to Military Operations

摘要

This paper addresses the application of computer-based tools to aid senior decision makers in a modern military environment. It is organized in three sections. First, the key features of successful computer-based solutions are presented. Past database centric efforts are reviewed and found insufficient. Second, simulation generally and System Dynamics (SD) specifically are discussed, developed, and contrasted with more database centric solutions. Third, an example SD model is developed that addresses a classic COIN problem-counterintuitive insurgent subtraction-which explains why insurgent numbers can actually increase after military forces engage them. This paper concludes by discussing several ways in which computational models can be made more relevant to military operations.