Capsize Probability of Damaged Ro-Ro Passenger Ships

摘要

This paper explains the feasibility of using wave group theory to predict the capsize probability of damaged Ro-Ro Passenger ships based on experiment data analysis. Basic definitions of a wave group are discussed leading to the adoption of a definition suitable for the present analysis. Based on the above discussion and analysis, an assumption is made that the probability of ship capsizing in a certain period of time is equal to the probability of occurrence of a series of wave groups with sufficient duration and wave height beyond a threshold during this time interval, such thresholds vary for different ships and damage conditions. In the work undertaken, random waves are considered as stochastic process which allows for evaluation of the statistical properties of waves through frequency and probability domains. First attempts to predict damaged Ro-Ro Passenger ship capsize probability are presented on the basis of wave group analysis. The paper presents the framework of this new approach, which has the potential to deal with complicated stability problems of damaged ship in a clear and efficient way, avoiding time consuming numerical calculations.