Grey Markov Model and Its Application in Forecasting Electricity Demand

摘要

Electricity demand forecasting plays an important role in electricity system expansion planning, In order to improve the forecasting precision of the electricity demand, a Grey-Markov forecasting model, which has the merits of both grey GM(1,1) forecast and markov transition probability matrix forecast, was established in this paper. Using the electricity demand data of Zhejiang province, the forecasting calculations are done as an example. The results indicate that the precision of prediction is improved significantly by applying the Grey-Markov model. In the end, the forecast results of electricity demand of Zhejiang province are presented bases on the Grey-Markov model.