A Novel Marine Traffic Safety Assessment Based on Cloud Models

摘要

In this paper, we present a novel safety assessment approach to marine traffic based on cloud models, where various uncertainties in the complex system are well investigated and modeled by cloud theory. The proposed method focuses on the effective model of involved qualitative and quantitative elements in marine traffic safety systems. Optimal cloud models based on the relative cloud theory are used to estimate corresponding attributes of human factor, i. e. language level, educational background and average sailing ages, etc. In addition, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is used to build the rule base, where the post-condition cloud of rules would be activated by foregoing cloud models. Consequently, the final evaluation result of the cloud graph is obtained. The effectiveness and superiority of the proposed paradigm is compared with fuzzy synthetic judgment in marine traffic safety assessment. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is effective, intuitive and superiority to others.