Risk Analysis of Evacuation under Building Fire Based on Point Estimate Method

摘要

The risk on the evacuees exposed under building fire is quantified by reliability index β in single-room building, and the probability of successful evacuation is obtained according to β. Random variables influencing the reliability of evacuation are taken into account and described into probabilistic distribution denoting uncertainty characteristics in evacuation, and the performance for evacuation is established. Further more, Rosenblueth method is employed to calculate the reliability index β; the mathematical model for evacuation evaluation is set up. A case analysis is given in this paper to show that this method can perform the calculation of reliability index β.