Risk and Resiliency Assessment of Urban Groundwater Supply Sources (Ponds) by Structured Elicitation of Experts Knowledge

摘要

Management/operation failures of urban water supply infrastructure, especially pressurized sub system for distribution of drinking water from groundwater sources (ponds), may have severe social and economic consequences if risk and resilience scenarios are not properly considered during planning, design and/or operation phases. Physical and sanitary protection of ponds is permanent requirement for ensuring proper functioning of ponds and connected distribution network in the city. Because emergency situations may arise in case of natural or other disturbances or disasters, it is of particular importance to identify in advance key risk factors that can cause failures, and also to take into account what should be recovery time once the system is out of order for certain period(s) of time. Being aware that use of expert knowledge in assessing possible risk and resilience scenarios is essential and highly recommended in case of urban water supply of the City of Novi Sad in Serbia, this paper demonstrates how the method for structured elicitation, developed by Smith et al. (Heliyon l(2015):e00043, 2015), can be used to evaluate important risk and resilience factors within the group decision making process. Namely, there is a plan for enlarging the capacity of one of the three existing ponds within the city area, and we are proposing an application of structured elicitation procedure to properly consider possible risks in operating this important critical part of urban infrastructure. We show that method is sufficiently intuitive in capturing experts' uncertainty, efficient in generating agreement and convenient for communicating the results to the decision-makers. Simulation of decision-making process with three participating experts is aimed to convince city managers and other responsible authorities that recommended use of the method is not only scientifically justified, but also easy and efficient to implement in practice.