Processes and mechanisms of persistent extreme precipitation events in East China

摘要

This study mainly presents recent progresses on persistent extreme precipitation events (PEPEs) in East China. A definition focusing both persistence and extremity of daily precipitation is firstly proposed. An identification method for quasi-stationary regional PEPEs is then designed. By utilizing the identified PEPEs in East China, typical circulation configurations from the lower to the upper troposphere are confirmed, followed by investigations of synoptic precursors for key components with lead time of 1-2 weeks. Two characteristic circulation patterns responsible for PEPEs in East China are identified: a double blocking high type and a single blocking high type. They may account for occurrence of nearly 80% PEPEs during last 60 years. For double blocking high type, about two weeks prior to PEPEs, two blockings developed and progressed towards the Ural Mountains and the Sea of Okhotsk, respectively. A northwestward progressive anomalous anticyclone conveying abundant moisture and eastward-extended South Asia High favoring divergence can be detected about one week in advance. A dominant summertime teleconnection over East Asia, East Asia/ Pacific (EAP) pattern, is deemed as another typical regime inducing PEPEs in the East China. Key elements of the EAP pattern initiated westward movement since one week prior to PEPEs. Eastward energy dispersion and poleward energy dispersion contributed to early development and subsequent maintenance of this teleconnection pattern, respectively. These typical circulation patterns and significant precursors may offer local forecasters some useful clues in identifying and predicting such high-impact precipitation events about 1-2 weeks in advance.