Satellite reliability modeling with modified Weibull extension distribution

摘要

Reliability is one of the critical attributes for long life and high performance satellite. To deal with the limitation on satellite reliability analysis confronted in the past decades, a series of papers has been published recently by Saleh et al. In these papers, thousands of Earth-orbiting satellites successfully launched between 1990 and 2008 have been analyzed. This paper extends the statistical analysis of satellite reliability based on the same database. The satellite reliability is modeled using a modified Weibull extension distribution. The parametric estimation is carried out by utilizing the nonlinear least squares method. Finally, a comparative analysis is conducted on the fitting results of Weibull and modified Weibull extension distribution. The results demonstrate that the modified Weibull extension distribution is more accurate and flexible in modeling the satellite reliability than the traditional Weibull distribution. The accuracy and convenience of the modified Weibull extension distribution indicates its practical application in engineering designs.