Prediction of Storm surges around Korean Coasts using Climate Change Projection Data

摘要

The present study examines future storm surges along Korean coastsrnusing output data of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM),rnwhich was contributed to the Fifth Assessment Report ofrnIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The storm surges arernsimulated by directly using the AGCM output in the storm surge model.rnFor the evaluation of the future storm surge, the simulations arernconducted for the present climate (1979 ~ 2008) and the future climatern(2075 ~ 2099). The study found that the landfall of tropical cyclonesrnshows a tendency of moving eastward under the future climate. It wasrnfound that the storm surge heights along the Korean coast vary withrnregions under the future climate projection. In addition, the projectedrnmaximum surge heights along the southeast coast for the future climaternare approximately 2.5 m higher than those for the present climate.