How much water does China need?—Retrospect and prospect

摘要

Recently year the issue on China's water use in the future attracts high attention in and outside country with the severe drought overspreading. However, researches on this issue either bias the analysis from demand side, neglecting the resources restrain, or are at the national level without more caring about the disparity by region. By reviewing the historical data in China in the past few decades, this paper attempts to answer the inquiries on how much water China needs and when the peak value appears based on analysis from supply constrain and demand incentives. Furthermore try to draw a picture at river basin level. The analysis shows China's water use will keep going with a low speed. And the total amount can be controlled within 660 billion m3 in 2,030 when the water use reach to peak. Rapidly domestic growth as well as agriculture reduction in partial basin is the distinct character. Nevertheless, agriculture still accounts for major share of total with a proportion about 60%. Although a growth of 100 billion m3 is not abundant, it is still a tough work for China to balance in the future. Sense transition and implementation of demand management are urgently needed.