Discharge projection of the Yodo River basin with dam reservoirs using MRI's 20km-GCM and its impact assessments due to climate change

摘要

This study shows the 100-year-ahead projection of distributed discharges subject to dam operation in the Yodo River basin founded on the MRI's 20 km-GCM outputs under climate changes. Numerical predictions for secondary and regional influences due to climate changes include extreme hydrological events and changes in the timing of seasonal patterns in nature systems. The discharge projection and its impact assessments in the period up to 2096 are focused in this study. From the projected calculations of the Yodo River basin, it is concluded that the 100-yearahead extreme phenomena of flooding will be shifted to an intensive reaction against heavy rainfall events and that more cautions to flood disasters will be necessitated. We also follow the changes in water storages at the dam sites or in Lake Biwa due to climate change. It can be seen that the 100-yearahead storage will decrease especially in autumn and winter compared with the current ones.