Research on Risk Assessment of Enterprise Human Capital Investment Based on Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence

摘要

Risk assessment of enterprise human capital investment has been one of the issues which are attracted by managers and scholars since the seminal work of Schultz. In this paper, we investigate the use of Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence for modeling and evaluating the risk of human capital investment. Firstly, we present a preliminary review of evidence theory and improve the rule of evidence combination by introducing a discounting ratio. And then, we construct the index system of risk assessment for enterprise human capital investment. Finally, we report a case study to demonstrate the utilization of Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence in the process of risk assessment for enterprise human capital investment. The empirical result verifies the feasibility and efficacy of this mathematic method in dealing with imprecise information cues and conflicts among the evidences.