APPLIED FORECASTING OF SHORT-TERM NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION

摘要

Natural gas consumption forecasting is required tornbalance the supply and consumption of natural gas.rnForecasting results for a larger gas distributing and districtrnheating company in Slovenia are discussed in the paper.rnBased on only two years of data, the short-termrnforecasting model was developed for daily and hourlyrnnatural gas consumption forecasting with the horizon uprnto 48 hours. The average mean absolute error (MAE)rnobtained during the three winter seasons of operationrn(2007/2008, 2008/2009, 2009/2010) in daily resolutionrnamounts to MAE = 3.15 % of the maximum transportrncapacity of the distribution system. This result enables therncompany to increase savings as defined by the economicrnincentive model. The results are very encouraging andrnconfirm the applicability of such an approach.