Navigational Risk Assessment in Restricted Waters by Using AIS Data

摘要

Strait of Malacca is one of the most important shipping lanes in the world which an average of 150 ships passes a day and more than 50,000 ships annually.With high concentration of vessels in a narrow path,multiple risks situation arises.In 2009,Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) had successfully installed an Automatic Identification System (AIS) receiver to record ship movements data in the Straits of Malacca and Singapore.A website is established by UTM to retrieve the data for the purpose of marine traffic monitoring as well as for collision risk analysis.A risk assessment method using AIS data is proposed for the Straits of Malacca and Singapore.The risk assessment methodology requires the estimation of collisions probabilities.The collision probability of the proposed method considers the Traffic Density,directions of traffic flow (with respect to a subject vessel) and probability of navigational failure.An area in the Strait of Singapore between the latitudes of 1°13′N and 1°08′N and Longitudes of 103°46′E and 103°55′E was selected to illustrate the method.By analysing the AIS data of traffic flow,the probabilities of collisions for the area were determined.The vessel parameters of length,breadth and speed are shown to effect the risks of collision.