Structural Equation Modelling based data fusion for technology forecasting: A National Research and Education Network example

摘要

This paper presents an example model instantiation of Staphorst, Pretorius and Pretorius' framework for Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) based Data Fusion (DF) for Technology Forecasting (TF) in the National Research and Education Network (NREN) technology domain. The paper's example NREN model instantiation is constructed through deductive reasoning from knowledge gained during action research in the South African National Research Network (SANReN), as well as secondary data from TERENA's NREN compendiums for global NREN infrastructure and services trends. A variety of technology related measurements are employed in the example NREN model instantiation as indicators for technology related model constructs, such as the level of core network traffic in an NREN. Indicators for context related model constructs include, amongst others, the range of institutions an NREN is mandated to connect. For confirmatory purposes the secondary data published by TERENA in its yearly NREN compendium series is then used in the Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression analysis to determine the indicator loadings and path coefficients of the example NREN model instantiation. A reliability and validity analysis of the example NREN model instantiation is also considered.