Strategic Cyclical Scaling: Bridging Five Orders of Magnitude Scale Gaps in Climatic and Ecological Studies

摘要

We have suggested that progress in bridging orders of magnitude differences in scale may be aided by use of the cycling across scales in which micro information of processes and mechanisms is used to make predictions at larger scales, and then data at larger scales is used to test to predictions, after which future micro refinements are performed in light of the testing at macro levels. We show that this process is easiest to apply when the distances across the disciplines that are coupled is not too great - within ecology or ecology coupled to climate - our prime examples developed above. We also suggest -and give an example - that this becomes more difficult in practice when natural and social scientific sub-models are coupled - at least until an interdisciplinary epistemic community emerges in which each sub-discipline learns enough about the methods and traditions of the other sub-disciplines to communicate meaningfully. We also note that although convergence of cycling across scales may occur for some problems, where fundamental data is lacking to test - at micro or macro scales - or where functional relationships among variables are still highly uncertain, convergence may not be easily obtained. It is difficult to fashion a set of rules for applying SCS, but clearly the keys are to have (a) a reasonable idea of processes/mechanisms at smaller scales (b) some relevant data sets at large scales to test the predictions of models built on the micro level understanding, and (c) the development and fostering of interdisciplinary teams, and eventually, interdisciplinary communities, capable of unbiased peer reviewing of cross-scale, cross-disciplinary analyses in which the bulk of the originality is in the integrative aspects, rather than advances in the sub-disciplines that are coupled. Several of the contributions in this volume are excellent examples of the progress that is being made in fostering the development of such an interdisciplinary community, progress that is essential to the growth and credibility of the integrated assessment of climate change.