TECHNOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT: CAN WE INTEGRATE TERRORIST ATTACKS?

摘要

Safety and security from major hazards posed by high-risk technical installations and systems is an essential component of quality of life for all industrial societies with their considerable dependencies on these technological systems. Traditionally, this is the domain of Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA). This paper proposes new methodologies for an alternative risk assessment for high-risk technical installations (from Seveso-II class industrial plants to waterworks or major dams) using a combination of Artificial Intelligence methods and classical QRA with fate and transport modeling to assess emergency scenarios that can represent cases of terrorist attack, leading to a new class of worst case scenarios. It also discusses the data and information requirements, and approaches to the consistent integration of these data. The paper also explores how the same methods of analysis can be used to improve emergency preparedness and emergency response and management for this class of worst case scenarios.