Spatial-Temporal Distribution and Impact Factors Analysis of Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Activity in Hubei China

摘要

The cloud-to-ground lightning is a serious weather disaster, which has great harm to human security and fundamental construction. This paper explores the spatial-temporal distribution of cloud-to-ground lightning at Hubei Province in 2015. We firstly compute the Moran's index and the local Moran's index of the cloud-to-ground lightning density in each month. The distribution of the occurrence count, density and Moran's indexes is a parabola, and the peak locates in April and May of 2015. Then, we test the Moran's index results by p-value. The analysis shows that about 10% cloud-to-ground lightning region is clustered. Finally, we observed the probability of the lightning density is Quasi-Poisson distribution and fit the lightning density by General Additive Model (GAM). The experiment indicates precipitation, terrain roughness, altitude can be used for effectively predicting the ground lightning density level.